In October we said there was no obvious reason to plan for relief at the 4 November fuel adjustment. We were wrong about the relief, though not about the pressure. Diesel fell R1.10 a litre, but the costs underneath it kept rising. The drop comes from a temporary tax cut, and that cut halves on 2 December.

Where things stand

Fuel is the adjustment effective 4 November, from the statement issued by the Central Energy Fund for the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. Diesel prices are wholesale, so what you pay at the pump will differ. Rates, inflation and the rand come from the South African Reserve Bank.

Without the levy cut, fuel went up

In his 21 October mini-budget, the Finance Minister temporarily cut the general fuel levy by R1.50 a litre on petrol and R3 a litre on diesel. The official breakdown of this month’s change shows what that cut is covering.

So without the cut, 500ppm diesel would be about R33.86 a litre. That is well above October’s R31.95, already the highest price in the official history, which goes back to April 2024.

The slate levy is the charge that recovers past shortfalls in the fuel price system. It rose to R1.36 a litre after those shortfalls reached about R15.9 billion at the end of September. The rand averaged R16.55 to the dollar over the period, against R16.21 the period before.

The dates that matter

If nothing else moves, that adds R1.50 a litre to diesel and 50c to petrol on 2 December. If the relief then ends without an extension, it adds another R1.50 to diesel and R1 to petrol after 5 January. Oil and the rand will move as well, in either direction, so these are not price forecasts. They show how much of today’s price has an end date.

The diesel-over-petrol gap we have followed since August is down to about 60c, from R1.70 last month. That narrowing comes from diesel’s bigger levy cut. If nothing else moves, the gap goes back to about R1.60 in December and about R2.10 after 5 January.

What it costs you

The same three profiles as in earlier months, all on 500ppm diesel, so the trend is visible. A one-tonne bakkie doing collections sits near 11ℓ/100km.

• Two supplier runs a week, 40km round trip.About 41ℓ a month. You save roughly R45 a month on October. Without the levy cut you would be paying R78 more. 2 December adds back about R62.
• Daily deliveries, 60km a day, six days a week.About 172ℓ a month. You save roughly R189 a month on October. Without the levy cut you would be paying R327 more. 2 December adds back about R258.
• A 5kVA generator, four hours a day, twenty days. About 120ℓ. You save roughly R132 a month on October. Without the levy cut you would be paying R228 more. 2 December adds back about R180.

The December figures assume nothing else moves. The delivery business is still paying about R1,040 a month more than in July for the same routes, because diesel is up R6.07 a litre, or about 24%. Last month we put the extra cost at about a sixth of gross profit for a business turning over R30,000 at a 25% margin. It is now about a seventh, and only while the full levy cut lasts.

Paraffin and LPG got no relief

The levy cut applies to petrol and diesel only. Paraffin’s maximum retail price rose R3.66 to R35.48 a litre, the same across the country. LPG rose R1.83 a kilogram to R39.64 inland and R36.39 at the coast, which adds about R16 to a 9kg cylinder at the maximum price. If you cook with gas or sell paraffin, this month is an increase, whatever the fuel headlines say.

The inflation number is still behind

Headline CPI rose to 4.5%in September, with transport inflation at 10.8%. That reading does not yet include October’s fuel adjustment, when petrol 95 jumped about 12% in one month. Producer price inflation, which tracks prices earlier in the supply chain, was already 6.2% in September. Expect suppliers’ prices to keep feeling this, even with the levy cut in place.

Rates are unchanged, so every R100,000 of debt linked to prime still costs what it did last month. The Reserve Bank’s next decision is on 19 November.

What to actually do

• Don’t cut fuel-based prices yet. If you lower delivery fees or call-out charges now, you may be raising them again within weeks. If you have to pass something on, make it a promotion with an end date, not a new price.
• Put a date on quotes that include travel. A quote priced today assumes diesel with R3 a litre of relief. Make it valid to 1 December, or price the job for what fuel may cost when you do the work.
• Do fuel-heavy work in November if you can. If you have a big stock run or long-distance job you can move, this is the month with the most relief.
• Reprice anything that runs on paraffin or LPG now. Those costs have already gone up.
• Watch 19 November and 2 December. The first is the rate decision, and the second is when the relief shrinks.

A correction

Our September and October reports overstated 50ppm diesel by 49c. We listed R30.05 and R33.29; the official wholesale prices were R29.56 and R32.80. That also means our September line that diesel had crossed R30 was wrong: it had not done so that month. Both reports now show the right figures. The 500ppm prices used in our cost profiles were not affected.

The short version

Diesel fell R1.10, but without the levy cut it would have risen R1.90. That cut halves on 2 December and, unless it is extended, ends after 5 January. Paraffin and LPG went up, rates held, and the inflation figure has not yet caught up with October’s fuel jump. Enjoy the saving, but don’t build your prices on it.

We publish this every month after the fuel adjustment. To see these figures against your own expenses rather than a generic bakkie, Stoki’s advisor reads the same live SARB and fuel data alongside what you actually spend.