SA small business cost report — October 2026

In September we said there was no obvious reason to plan for relief at the October fuel adjustment. There wasn’t any. October is the third increase in a row, the biggest of the three, and this time the Reserve Bank moved as well.

Where things stand

Fuel is the adjustment effective 7 October. Rates, inflation and the rand come from the South African Reserve Bank.

The gap narrowed. That is not good news.

Last month we wrote that diesel’s lead over petrol had got worse, not better, at R2.19 a litre. This month it shrank to R1.70 — diesel at R31.95 against petrol at R30.25.

That isn’t diesel easing. Petrol simply rose faster, by R3.33 against diesel’s R2.84. Everyone is paying more; motorists have just started catching up with businesses that move goods. Since July, diesel is up R7.17 a litre, about 29%, and petrol is up R4.15.

The cause is the same story, larger: Brent crude averaged about US$101 over the review period, up from roughly US$88, on tension around the Strait of Hormuz, higher shipping costs and falling inventories.

What it costs you

The same three profiles as August and September, so the trend is visible. A one-tonne bakkie doing collections sits near 11ℓ/100km.

• Two supplier runs a week, 40km round trip.About 41ℓ a month. October’s increase costs roughly R116 a month more than September.
• Daily deliveries, 60km a day, six days a week.About 172ℓ a month. Roughly R488 a month more than September.
• A 5kVA generator, four hours a day, twenty days. About 120ℓ. Roughly R341 a month more than September.

Add the three months together and the delivery business is paying about R1,230 a month more than in July for the same routes. Last month we put that at close to a tenth of gross profit for a business turning over R30,000 at a 25% margin. It is now about a sixth.

Borrowing got dearer too

Until now this series has said rates were flat. On 23 September the Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by a quarter point to 7.25%, with all six committee members in favour, and prime moved to 10.75%. The reason it gave is the one in this report: fuel prices rising again and the risk that they spread into everything else.

In rands it is modest. Every R100,000 of stock finance, overdraft or vehicle finance linked to prime costs about R21 a month more. It matters because it lands on top of the fuel bill, not instead of it.

The inflation number is still behind

Headline CPI was 4.4%for August, up slightly from 4.3%. In September we said that reading was accurate and backward-looking at the same time. That still holds: August was the month petrol fell 52 cents, so neither the September increase nor October’s is in it. Transport inflation was already running at 8.8% within that 4.4%.

The rand has also slipped, from about R16.31 to R16.53 to the dollar — a small change, but it takes back the small favour it was doing on imported stock.

What to actually do

• Reprice what runs on fuel, now. Three increases in a row are not a blip. Delivery fees, call-out charges and anything you quote with travel built in are three adjustments behind if they were set in July.
• Check what you owe at prime. If you carry an overdraft or stock finance, the rate rise has applied since 25 September. Paying it down is now worth a little more than it was.
• Watch 4 November. That is the next fuel adjustment. With Brent around US$100 there is still no obvious reason to plan for relief.

The short version

Petrol crossed R30 and diesel is R7.17 dearer than in July. Three months have added roughly R1,230 a month to a modest delivery operation. Rates rose for the first time in this series. The inflation figure still predates most of it.

We publish this every month after the fuel adjustment. To see these figures against your own expenses rather than a generic bakkie, Stoki’s advisor reads the same live SARB and fuel data alongside what you actually spend.