Last month we wrote that diesel had quietly overtaken petrol while the headlines celebrated a 52c petrol cut. September took that from an oddity to a problem.
Where things stand
| Indicator | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|
| SARB policy rate | 7.00% | Unchanged |
| Prime lending rate | 10.50% | Unchanged |
| Headline CPI (year-on-year) | 4.3% | Down from 5.0%, July figure |
| Petrol 95 ULP, inland | R26.92/ℓ | Up R1.34 |
| Diesel 500ppm wholesale, inland | R29.11/ℓ | Up R2.93 |
| Diesel 50ppm wholesale, inland | R30.05/ℓ | Up R3.15 |
Fuel is the DMRE adjustment effective 2 September. Rates, inflation and the rand come from the South African Reserve Bank.
The gap got worse, not better
In August diesel ran 58 cents above petrol 95 and we called that unusual. This month the gap is R2.19. Diesel at 500ppm is R29.11 against petrol at R26.92, and the cleaner 50ppm grade has crossed R30 a litre for the first time.
Over two months diesel has gone from R24.78 to R29.11 — that is R4.33 a litre, about 17.5%, while petrol rose 82 cents over the same stretch. If your business moves goods, your fuel line has risen roughly five times faster than a motorist’s.
The DMRE attributes it to Brent moving from about US$82 to US$88 on Middle East supply risk and reduced Russian exports, plus a higher slate levy — the same levy that cut petrol’s price in August, now pushing the other way.
What it costs you
Same three profiles we used in August, so you can see a trend rather than a single month. A one-tonne bakkie doing collections sits near 11ℓ/100km.
- Two supplier runs a week, 40km round trip.About 41ℓ a month. September’s increase costs you roughly R120 a month — up from R56 in August.
- Daily deliveries, 60km a day, six days a week.About 172ℓ a month. Roughly R504 a month more than August, which was already R237 more than July.
- A 5kVA generator, four hours a day, twenty days. About 120ℓ. Roughly R352 a month more than August.
Run the delivery case forward and that business is paying about R740 a month more than it did in July for exactly the same routes. On R30,000 of monthly turnover at a 25% gross margin, that is close to a tenth of your gross profit gone to diesel — with no customer noticing a better service.
Don’t be reassured by the inflation number
Headline CPI came in at 4.3%for July, down from 5.0% in June. That reads like relief, and it earns a correction on our part: last month we described inflation as drifting toward the top of the Reserve Bank’s 3–6% band. The July print went the other way.
But look at the date. That figure measures July — a month before the September fuel adjustment existed. None of the R2.93 diesel increase is in it. Fuel feeds transport costs, transport feeds food prices, and food carries the heaviest weight in the basket. The 4.3% is accurate and backward-looking at the same time.
Rates are unchanged at 7.00%, prime at 10.50%, so stock finance and vehicle finance repayments are flat. The rand is around R16.31 to the dollar, which is doing you a small favour on imported stock.
What to actually do
- Reprice delivery, properly this time. Last month we suggested checking whether a free-delivery threshold still covered its cost. At R2.19 above petrol it almost certainly does not. This has stopped being a rounding error.
- Two months in one direction is a trend. August and September both rose hard. Pricing set against a July diesel figure is now two increases behind.
- Watch 7 October. That is the next DMRE adjustment. With Brent near US$88 and supply risk unresolved, there is no obvious reason to plan for relief.
The short version
Diesel crossed R30 and sits R2.19 above petrol. Two months have added roughly R740 a month to a modest delivery operation. Borrowing costs are flat. The friendly inflation number predates all of it.
We publish this every month after the DMRE adjustment. To see these figures against your own expenses rather than a generic bakkie, Stoki’s advisor reads the same live SARB and fuel data alongside what you actually spend.